Essay

Why fraud models should only propose. By Amir Shachar.

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Riskernel

Launch Fraud Review

What are you launching next?

A new payout rail, a card program, a lending product, a new country. Tell us in two lines. You get a private attack tree back: how the new flow gets abused, what it could cost you, and which three controls matter most. Signed by Amir Shachar. No call needed.

A fixed-scope attack tree before a new rail, product or market goes live.

Discreet by design. No client’s data ever reaches another.

What comes back

An attack tree you can hand to your team.

One goal, three ways in, the leaf-level steps under each, and a plain High, Medium or Low on likely loss. The example below is a generic launch, drawn to show the shape.

GOAL Move money out through a new instant payout rail
  1. AAccount opening abuse
    1. A1Sign-ups at volume with made-up or borrowed identities
    2. A2Accounts opened to be sold on, not usedHypothesis
  2. BPayment or payout abuse
    1. B1First payout sent to a destination added minutes earlier
    2. B2Many small payouts that stay under a review thresholdHypothesis
  3. CPromotion or credit abuse
    1. C1One person claiming a sign-up bonus on many accounts
    2. C2Credit drawn and cashed out before repayment is dueHypothesis
Illustrative Example tree for a generic launch. Not a client engagement. High, Medium and Low are our qualitative judgement of likely loss per leaf, not dollar estimates.

Three controls that matter most

  1. Treat a new payout destination as a high-risk event. Hold or cap the first payout to any destination added in the same session.
  2. Ask for more proof when a new device and a new destination arrive together. One alone is common. The pair is the pattern.
  3. Check sign-ups against each other before any bonus pays. Shared devices and shared funding sources are cheap to match and expensive to ignore.

Illustrative Yours are specific to your flow.

Signed

Signed by Amir Shachar.

The review is written and signed by the person whose name is on it, not handed to a template.

What we need

Three fields. Nothing else.

  • Company. So we know whose launch it is.
  • Work email. Where the written review goes.
  • What you’re launching. Two lines is enough.

No call, no deck, no access to your systems.

What happens next

In writing, then on a private page.

You get the attack tree in writing, signed by Amir Shachar. A private page follows with each item tagged Observation or Hypothesis.

Observation What we can see from public sources or what you told us. Hypothesis What we infer and would test next.

Runs beside your current system. Nothing to rip out.

  1. 01 Launch Fraud Review Free, in writing

    Private attack tree of the new flow

    Exit: Keep it. No obligation.

  2. 02 Shadow test 14 days, free

    Scores and reasons on your own traffic, next to your current results

    Exit: Keep the report. No obligation.

  3. 03 Architecture sprint 10 days

    Written review of your fraud surface, scoped to one number we name with you first

    Exit: Plan in hand.

  4. 04 Pilot 30 days

    Engine live in parallel on one flow, measured against that number

    Exit: Go or no-go on evidence.

  5. 05 Production Ongoing

    Real-time scoring API sized to your traffic

    Exit: Quoted on request.

Discreet by design. No client’s data ever reaches another.

Send us two lines about your launch.

Free, in writing, and yours to keep. No obligation.